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The race for second place in the Republican primaries has gotten closer. Nikki Haley has been rising surprisingly quickly in the polls in recent months, becoming a top rival to Ron DeSantis; both are still trailing Donald Trump. I called my colleague Elaine Godfrey, who covers politics for The Atlantic and attended a campaign event for Haley in New Hampshire last week, to talk about what Haley offers that DeSantis does not, and what her surge tells us about voters’ hunger for normalcy.
First, here are three new stories from The Atlantic:
New Scrutiny
Lora Kelley: Why has support for Haley been rising lately?
Elaine Godfrey: Her support has been ticking upward since August, when we had the first GOP debate. Supporters in New Hampshire told me that they saw her on the debate stage and really liked her. She has presented herself as an alternative to Trump, basically saying: If you don’t like Donald Trump, or if you did like Trump but now you’re over him, please vote for me.
A lot of voters who don’t want to support Trump don’t really want to support Ron DeSantis, because they see him as a mini Trump. Haley’s lane, and the kind of voter that she’s going for, is much clearer.
Lora: How big is the appetite among voters for someone who has more conventional political experience than, say, Trump?
Elaine: Last week, I was sitting in the room at Haley’s campaign event in New Hampshire, and the person who introduced her said something like “Aren’t we happy that we finally have a candidate who was once an accountant?” And the room just went wild. I remember laughing. Can you picture that happening at a Trump rally? It was a blast from the past of pre-Trump Republican politics—this person knows how to balance a budget.
There is such an appetite among a small set of Republican primary voters, but a pretty significant set of independent and moderate voters, for normalcy. These voters complain that Joe Biden is too old to be president, and that Trump is too unpredictable and crazy. They want to know: Why can’t we just have younger, more “normal” candidates? That being said, most Republican primary voters are still in the bag for Trump. They do not want an accountant. Haley’s more conventional political experience would probably play really well in a general election. But it doesn’t seem like a recipe for success in the primary.
Lora: Haley says that she’s personally pro-life but doesn’t judge people who are pro-choice. How will that go over with voters on both sides of the abortion issue?
Elaine: I don’t think that stance is actually very polarizing. Most Americans support abortion access of some kind, but they want a limit. They don’t want abortion to be legal in all circumstances, but they’re really turned off by the strict bans that some states have been passing.
Haley was initially sort of murky on her abortion position. Now when people talk to her about that, her answer is that she is unapologetically pro-life, but she understands why someone might be pro-choice. She often tells voters that a federal abortion law isn’t likely to pass, but can’t we come together to condemn late-term abortions? And can’t we all agree to support good-quality adoption?
A lot of voters like that and respond to that. Frankly, I’m surprised that more Republican candidates aren’t talking that way.
Lora: To what extent might Haley’s background in foreign policy (she was the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations for two years under Trump) be an asset to her?
Elaine: Voters I talked to last week—and, granted, this was at a Nikki Haley event—said: Things are so scary right now in the world. She makes me feel better. She knows what’s going on. She wants peace through strength. That is a real plus for her in this particular moment, with this Middle East conflict and the war between Russia and Ukraine. I don’t know if it’s an issue that pushes her over the top, but some voters definitely see her as an experienced adult in the room when it comes to war and foreign policy.
Lora: What could tomorrow’s debate—where Haley will face off against DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy—mean for her?
Elaine: More people are going to be watching her now and seeing how this momentum translates to tomorrow’s debate. She’s likely going to be thinking: What kind of moment could I create for myself? What sound bite will set me apart? Maybe she’ll pick another fight with Vivek Ramaswamy. Maybe she’ll go harder on Trump, which most of the candidates have been hesitant to do. Watch for others onstage to attack her, now that her star is rising. They might criticize her for flip-flopping on her support for Trump—or for being a foreign-policy hawk, which is something that sets her apart from DeSantis and others onstage.
She and DeSantis are probably going to go after each other; both will be trying to create viral moments. They are both aware that they’re vying for second place in this primary.
Related:
Today’s News
- The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on a federal law that prevents people with domestic-violence restraining orders from possessing a firearm.
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel plans to “have overall security responsibility” in Gaza for “an indefinite period” when the war ends.
- House Republicans met behind closed doors to debate the structure of a stopgap measure as the government’s next shutdown deadline, November 17, approaches.
Dispatches
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Evening Read
‘How Much Can This Child Take?’
By Franklin Foer
On the night of Friday, October 6, Jon Polin and Rachel Goldberg laid their hands on the head of their 23-year-old son, Hersh, so that they could bless him, a ritual of the Sabbath. They recited in Hebrew: May you feel God’s presence within you always, and may you find peace.
It was an exquisitely temperate Jerusalem evening, and the Goldberg-Polin family made the most of it, dining al fresco at a long table of friends. Hersh’s presence was an unexpected blessing. He had only recently returned from several months of traveling across Europe by himself, occasionally meeting up with his boyhood friends. Earlier in the week, Hersh had told his mother that he would be away for the weekend, attending a music festival in the north. But that festival’s organizers had neglected to obtain the necessary permits, and the event ended prematurely.
More From The Atlantic
Culture Break
Read. Essential technologies such as jet engines and sewers are fundamental—and confusing. Here are eight books that explain how the world around us works.
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Katherine Hu contributed to this newsletter.
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